Uncanny Law of Averages

To those who’d studied ‘Statistics’ in their grad/post grad days, terms ‘mean’ & ‘theory of probability’ may be familiar. From practice we know it’s on fairly ‘average’ basis that things pan out in everyday life, be it investing in the money market, having a great day in the office, getting the shopping right as Mrs wanted and her smile of approval or predicting who’ll win today’s IPL match. It’s often not a win-win situation. There’s a funny ‘law of averages’ lurking to play a significant role in our lives.

In IPL, when top ranked KKR took on CSK, I’d predicted that they’d lose, based on the law they couldn’t go on winning. The same thing happened when RR, after 4 straight wins, lost to GT in a last ball thriller. MI too is coming out of its losing streak. The law seems to apply to all sports and contests, markets and business, swings in trade cycles, changes in climatic conditions and even to competitive exams with millions of young aspirants and to fluctuating fortunes of entrepreneurs, actors and our politicians !

The law of averages is the idea that something is sure to happen at some time, because of the number of times it generally happens or is expected to happen. On the law of averages we just can’t go on losing or winning for there is a common belief that the relative frequency of an event should correspond to its probability. People rationalize this with clever truisms ‘You win some, you lose some’ or ‘What goes up must come down’ or that ‘Everyday isn’t Sunday’ all reconciling to the belief that the path of life is uncertain. Nature balances and denies arrogant men of their cult of invincibility !

It’s said that there’s something good in all of us but politeness & civility in public life and discourse has become scarce and it surprises if it comes one’s way. Senior citizens are often at the receiving end of ridicule at home, offices and from gen next for being sloppy and forgetful. Being wise they know that after three good days with no domestic battles the fourth day can be ominous and has to be negotiated safely ! Surrounding themselves with old friends they indulge in harmless pastimes for amusement.

On the other hand, the committed homemakers are superstitious about their efficient maids. They pray that no ‘average law’ casts a spell on continuing good work. Despite problems of getting gainful employment the young are hopeful and such voodoos don’t rattle them till they come face to face with the world. Who can predict the mood of the Interviewers, Employers or Office Boss ? It could be sweet today and sour tomorrow !

On an average, life is as good and as difficult as we make of it. Good news is that as per Jim Rohn, motivational speaker, we are the average of five people we spend most time with. Maintain your good friends and they will make your life better if not the best !

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